Questions: On their first date, Kelly asks Mike to guess the date of her birth, not including the year. Complete parts a through c below. a. What is the probability that Mike will guess correctly? (Ignore leap years.) 1/365 (Type an integer or a simplified fraction.) b. Would it be unlikely for him to guess correctly on his first try? A. It is impossible for Mike to guess correctly on his first try, as the probability of a correct guess is 0. B. Yes, it is unlikely for Mike to guess correctly on his first try, as the probability of a correct guess is very low. C. No, it is not unlikely for Mike to guess correctly on his first try, as the probability of a correct guess is very high. D. It is impossible for Mike to not guess correctly on his first try, as the probability of a correct guess is 1. E. Yes, it is unlikely for Mike to guess correctly on his first try, as the probability of a correct guess is very high. F. No, it is not unlikely for Mike to guess correctly on his first try, as the probability of a correct guess is very low. c. If you were Kelly, and Mike did guess correctly on his first try, would you believe his claim that he made a lucky guess, or would you be convinced that he already knew when you were born?

On their first date, Kelly asks Mike to guess the date of her birth, not including the year. Complete parts a through c below.
a. What is the probability that Mike will guess correctly? (Ignore leap years.)
1/365
(Type an integer or a simplified fraction.)
b. Would it be unlikely for him to guess correctly on his first try?
A. It is impossible for Mike to guess correctly on his first try, as the probability of a correct guess is 0.
B. Yes, it is unlikely for Mike to guess correctly on his first try, as the probability of a correct guess is very low.
C. No, it is not unlikely for Mike to guess correctly on his first try, as the probability of a correct guess is very high.
D. It is impossible for Mike to not guess correctly on his first try, as the probability of a correct guess is 1.
E. Yes, it is unlikely for Mike to guess correctly on his first try, as the probability of a correct guess is very high.
F. No, it is not unlikely for Mike to guess correctly on his first try, as the probability of a correct guess is very low.
c. If you were Kelly, and Mike did guess correctly on his first try, would you believe his claim that he made a lucky guess, or would you be convinced that he already knew when you were born?
Transcript text: On their first date, Kelly asks Mike to guess the date of her birth, not including the year. Complete parts a through c below. a. What is the probability that Mike will guess correctly? (Ignore leap years.) $\frac{1}{365}$ (Type an integer or a simplified fraction.) b. Would it be unlikely for him to guess correctly on his first try? A. It is impossible for Mike to guess correctly on his first try, as the probability of a correct guess is 0 . B. Yes, it is unlikely for Mike to guess correctly on his first try, as the probability of a correct guess is very low. C. No, it is not unlikely for Mike to guess correctly on his first try, as the probability of a correct guess is very high. D. It is impossible for Mike to not guess correctly on his first try, as the probability of a correct guess is 1 . E. Yes, it is unlikely for Mike to guess correctly on his first try, as the probability of a correct guess is very high. F. No, it is not unlikely for Mike to guess correctly on his first try, as the probability of a correct guess is very low. c. If you were Kelly, and Mike did guess correctly on his first try, would you believe his claim that he made a lucky guess, or would you be convinced that he already knew when you were born?
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Solution

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Solution Steps

To solve the given questions, we need to understand the probability of guessing a specific date out of 365 days and interpret the likelihood of such an event.

Part a

The probability of guessing Kelly's birth date correctly is the ratio of one favorable outcome to the total number of possible outcomes (365 days).

Part b

We need to determine if the probability calculated in part a is low enough to be considered unlikely.

Part c

We need to interpret the result of part a to decide if Mike's correct guess on the first try is likely to be a lucky guess or if he might have known the date beforehand.

Step 1: Calculate the Probability of Guessing Correctly

The probability of Mike guessing Kelly's birth date correctly is given by the ratio of one favorable outcome to the total number of possible outcomes (365 days). This can be expressed as: \[ P(\text{correct guess}) = \frac{1}{365} \approx 0.0027 \]

Step 2: Determine if the Probability is Unlikely

To determine if the probability is unlikely, we compare it to a common threshold for unlikely events, typically \(0.05\). Since \(0.0027 < 0.05\), it is considered unlikely.

Step 3: Interpret the Result

Given that the probability of guessing correctly is very low (\(0.0027\)), it is unlikely that Mike made a lucky guess. Therefore, it is more plausible that Mike might have known the date beforehand.

Final Answer

Part a

\[ \boxed{\frac{1}{365}} \]

Part b

The answer is B: Yes, it is unlikely for Mike to guess correctly on his first try, as the probability of a correct guess is very low.

Part c

If Mike guessed correctly, it is more plausible that Mike might have known the date beforehand, given the low probability of a lucky guess.

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